{"id":39802,"date":"2017-08-28T05:46:48","date_gmt":"2017-08-28T00:16:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/new.editage.cn\/insights\/%e6%8e%a7%e5%88%b6%e3%80%81%e5%a4%84%e7%90%86%e3%80%81%e9%87%8d%e5%a4%8d%ef%bc%9a%e5%9c%a8%e4%b8%8d%e7%a1%ae%e5%ae%9a%e6%80%a7%e4%b8%ad%e5%a4%8d%e5%88%b6%e5%ae%9e%e9%aa%8c"},"modified":"2026-01-07T16:23:39","modified_gmt":"2026-01-07T10:53:39","slug":"kong-zhi-chu-li-chong-fu-zai-bu-que-ding-xing-zhong-fu-zhi-shi-yan-2783","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.editage.cn\/insights\/kong-zhi-chu-li-chong-fu-zai-bu-que-ding-xing-zhong-fu-zhi-shi-yan-2783\/","title":{"rendered":"\u63a7\u5236\u3001\u5904\u7406\u3001\u91cd\u590d\uff1a\u5728\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u4e2d\u590d\u5236\u5b9e\u9a8c"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u7a76\u7adf\u6536\u76ca\u7684\u6b67\u4e49\u4f1a\u5982\u4f55\u5f71\u54cd\u5408\u4f5c\u548c\u5206\u914d\uff1f\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4efb\u4f55\u4e0e\u5148\u524d\u5de5\u4f5c\u6709\u5173\u7684\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u5355\u6709\u7edf\u8ba1\u663e\u8457\u6027\u5c31\u8db3\u4ee5\u8bc1\u660e\u5b83\u7684\u6709\u6548\u6027\u5417\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>Luigi Butera \u548c John List \u7684\u8bba\u6587 <a href=\"https:\/\/ideas.repec.org\/p\/feb\/artefa\/00608.html\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">An Economic Approach to Alleviate the Crises of Confidence in Science: With An Application to the Public Goods Game<\/a> \u5c31\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e86\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u91cd\u590d\u56db\u4e2a\u516c\u5171\u8d22\u8d5b\u5c40\u7684\u5b9e\u9a8c\uff0c\u63d0\u51fa\u5438\u5f15\u53d1\u8868\u8fd9\u7c7b\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u63d0\u4f9b\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u7a33\u5065\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6709\u9274\u4e8e\u5355\u4e00\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7ed3\u679c\u5177\u6709\u7edf\u8ba1\u663e\u8457\u6027\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u8bef\u5bfc\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u9886\u57df\u7ecf\u5e38\u5ba3\u5bfc\u8981\u590d\u5236\u5b9e\u9a8c\uff0c\u4f46\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e2d\u8fd8\u662f\u5f88\u5c11\u53d1\u751f\u3002\u79d1\u7814\u4f5c\u8005\u8868\u793a\u7f3a\u4e4f\u539f\u59cb\u5b9e\u9a8c\u8bf1\u56e0\u548c\u9884\u671f\u7684\u91cd\u590d\u4eba\u5458\u662f\u9020\u6210\u8fd9\u4e2a\u53cc\u9762\u6027\u7684\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u8fd8\u8bf4\uff0c\u590d\u5236\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7684\u7247\u9762\u89c2\u70b9\u5bf9\u7814\u7a76\u53ef\u9760\u5ea6\u662f\u5a01\u80c1\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u539f\u56e0\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u627e\u51fa\u539f\u56e0\u540e\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u8865\u6551\u63aa\u65bd\uff1a\u63d0\u4f9b\u4ee5\u8bf1\u56e0\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840\u7684\u673a\u5236\u6765\u9f13\u52b1\u590d\u5236\u5b9e\u9a8c\u3002\u4e0d\u968f\u6ce2\u9010\u6d41\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5c06\u63d0\u8bae\u7684\u673a\u5236\u4ed8\u8bf8\u5b9e\u8df5\uff0c\u5c06\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u8bba\u6587\u4ee5 working paper \u7684\u5f62\u5f0f\u5728\u7ebf\u516c\u5f00\uff0c\u627f\u8bfa\u4e0d\u4f1a\u6295\u7a3f\u4efb\u4f55\u671f\u520a\uff0c\u5e76\u63d0\u4f9b\u5176\u4ed6\u590d\u5236\u4ed6\u4eec\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7684\u5b66\u8005\u5728\u4e0b\u4e00\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d\u5171\u540c\u7f72\u540d\u7684\u8d44\u683c\u505a\u4e3a\u4ea4\u6362\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5b9e\u9a8c\u6d89\u53ca\u6587\u732e\u4e2d\u6700\u591a\u4eba\u7814\u7a76\u8fc7\u7684\u9886\u57df\uff1a\u63d0\u4f9b\u516c\u5171\u8d22\uff0c\u4f46\u8c08\u5230\u4e86\u6bd4\u8f83\u5c11\u4eba\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u662f\u786e\u5b9e\u5b58\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u9886\u57df\u7684\uff0c\u5f88\u5c11\u6709\u7814\u7a76\u5c06\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7eb3\u5165\u5173\u7cfb\u4eba\u6295\u8d44\u516c\u5171\u8d22\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u4e2d\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u6709\u7eb3\u5165\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u8fd8\u662f\u6709\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u8981\u7d20\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5927\u5bb6\u6240\u77e5\u9053\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u6536\u76ca\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u504f\u79bb\u73b0\u5b9e\u60c5\u51b5\u7b49\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u900f\u9732\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u4eba\u5747\u62a5\u916c\u7387\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u7ed3\u5408\u5948\u7279\u6c0f\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027 (Knightian uncertainty)\uff0c\u4f7f\u7ed3\u679c\u8f83\u4e3a\u63a5\u8fd1\u73b0\u5b9e\u60c5\u51b5\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u603b\u4e4b\uff0c\u8bba\u6587\u8fde\u7ed3\u7684\u4e0d\u662f\u4e24\u7aef\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4e24\u4e2a\u843d\u5dee\uff1a\u5b9e\u9a8c\u548c\u91cd\u5236\u3002\u8bba\u6587\u8ba9\u8bfb\u8005\u8fdb\u5165\u5c1a\u672a\u63a2\u7d22\u7684\u4e16\u754c\uff0c\u8ba9\u4ed6\u4eec\u4f1a\u60f3\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u63a2\u7d22\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8d21\u732e\uff1a\u9632\u566a\u58f0\uff1f<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u5b9e\u9a8c\u8bbe\u7f6e\u662f\u591a\u56de\u5408\u7684\u6e38\u620f\uff0c\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u5206\u914d\u79c1\u4eba\u6216\u516c\u5f00\u5e10\u53f7\uff0c\u800c\u73a9\u5bb6\u5728\u8fd4\u8fd8\u8d21\u732e\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u4f1a\u53d1\u51fa\u58f0\u97f3\u63d0\u793a\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u53d1\u73b0\u5728\u79c1\u4eba\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u4e0b\u7684\u5408\u4f5c\u6bd4\u8f83\u9ad8\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u516c\u5171\u8d22\u8d28\u91cf\u5904\u5728\u672a\u77e5\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u3002\u5408\u4f5c\u4f1a\u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u8fc7\u53bb\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u8d8a\u8d8b\u5b8c\u6210\u800c\u74e6\u89e3\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u9ad8\u7684\u4e0b\u964d\u5e45\u5ea6\u8f83\u5927\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u900f\u9732\uff0c\u63d0\u793a\u7684\u5411\u4e0a\u504f\u5dee\u4f1a\u63d0\u9ad8\u8d21\u732e\uff0c\u800c\u5411\u4e0b\u504f\u5dee\u5219\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u5e76\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6709\u6096\u5e38\u7406\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u611f\u5230\u60ca\u8bb6\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5411\u4e0b\u504f\u5dee\u901a\u5e38\u662f\u66f4\u5177\u4ee3\u8868\u6027\u7684\u771f\u5b9e\u503c\u3002\u7eb3\u5165\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u4f1a\u63d0\u9ad8\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u65b9\u5411\u8bef\u5dee\u7684\u8d21\u732e\uff0c\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u4e5f\u4f1a\u63d0\u9ad8\u8fd4\u8fd8\u5185\u4e0e\u8fd4\u8fd8\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8be5\u7814\u7a76\u7ea0\u6b63\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7684\u8bbe\u8ba1\u5ba1\u67e5\u7fa4\u7ec4\u548c\u89c2\u5bdf\u95f4\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\uff0c\u4e5f\u5bfc\u51fa\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u5bf9\u4e8e\u81ea\u5df1\u626e\u6f14\u7684\u89d2\u8272\u611f\u5230\u56f0\u60d1\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7ed3\u679c\u503c\u5f97\u6ce8\u610f\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5176\u4e2d\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u8003\u8651\u7684\u5404\u79cd\u60c5\u5883\u7684\u5b8c\u6574\u6e05\u5355\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u907f\u514d\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u969c\u788d\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u4ece\u4e0a\u9762\u5f00\u59cb\u62ff<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u56e0\u4e3a\u7f3a\u4e4f\u521b\u65b0\u6027\uff0c\u5bf9\u91cd\u590d\u8005\u7684\u53cd\u9988\u9884\u671f\u503c\u8f83\u4f4e\uff0c\u800c\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4eba\u58eb\u7684\u5148\u884c\u8005\u98ce\u9669\u8bd5\u9a8c\u5931\u8d25\uff0c\u8ba9\u91cd\u590d\u610f\u613f\u53d7\u963b\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5927\u5bb6\u90fd\u77e5\u9053\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u627e\u51fa\u4e0d\u540c\u5f62\u5f0f\u7684\u91cd\u590d\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528\u540c\u6837\u7684\u6570\u636e\u96c6\uff0c\u6216\u662f\u7528\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u5904\u7406\u540c\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u6700\u540e\u9009\u62e9\u4e13\u6ce8\u5728\u91c7\u7528\u540c\u6837\u7684\u8bbe\u8ba1\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ed6\u4eec\u5206\u4eab\u4e86 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/articles?id=10.1257\/aer.104.1.277\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">Maniadis \u7b49\u4eba (2014)<\/a> \u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u65b9\u6cd5\u6765\u7b97\u51fa\u5148\u884c\u8005\u91cd\u590d\u5de5\u4f5c\u5931\u8d25\u548c\u6210\u529f\uff0c\u5206\u522b\u8bf4\u660e\u969c\u788d\u548c\u7ecf\u5e38\u88ab\u5ffd\u7565\u7684\u597d\u5904\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u5217\u51fa\u4ed6\u4eec\u901a\u8fc7\u547c\u5401\u91cd\u590d\u4eba\u5458\u6765\u5b9e\u73b0\u8fd9\u4e9b\u597d\u5904\u7684\u6b65\u9aa4\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u91cd\u590d\u4eba\u5458\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u547c\u5e94\u6216\u53cd\u9a73\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7814\u7a76\u5c1a\u672a\u514b\u5236\uff0c\u4f46\u4f5c\u8005\u786e\u5b9e\u6253\u4e2d\u80fd\u9f13\u52b1\u4ed6\u4eec\u53c2\u4e0e\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u7ed3\u8bba<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u7ed3\u679c\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u63d0\u9ad8\u5408\u4f5c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u60c5\u51b5\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5f15\u4eba\u6ce8\u76ee\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u4e9b\u538c\u6076\u5750\u4eab\u5176\u6210\u7684\u4eba\u5728\u5931\u8d25\u65f6\u9664\u4e86\u5f52\u548e\u4e0d\u52b3\u800c\u83b7\u7684\u4eba\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u73b0\u5728\u53c8\u591a\u4e86\u4e2a\u5730\u65b9\u53ef\u4ee5\u7a76\u8d23\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u7a0d\u5fae\u7f13\u89e3\u4e86\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u538c\u6076\uff0c\u9f13\u52b1\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u53c2\u4e0e\u3002\u56e0\u4e3a\u5f88\u96be\u9884\u6599\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u901a\u8fc7\u5ba1\u67e5\u7684\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7814\u7a76\u4e0d\u50cf\u5148\u524d\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u907f\u5f00\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u9009\u62e9\u76f4\u9762\u5b83\uff0c\u4e5f\u56e0\u4e3a\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u5f00\u542f\u4e86\u66f4\u4e3a\u771f\u5b9e\u7684\u73b0\u5b9e\u6a21\u62df\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8be5\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7ed3\u679c\u6709\u5176\u771f\u5b9e\u6027\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u91cd\u590d\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7684\u4eba\u5b9e\u9645\u7684\u8bf1\u56e0\uff0c\u6765\u53d6\u4ee3\u6539\u5584\u53ef\u9760\u5ea6\u8fd9\u79cd\u865a\u5e7b\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u3002\u518d\u600e\u4e48\u8bf4\uff0c\u6709\u4eba\u91cd\u590d\u65f6\u95f4\u80fd\u5e2e\u52a9\u907f\u514d\u4f4e\u4f30\u4e8b\u5b9e\u548c\u9ad8\u4f30\u8c2c\u8bef\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u66f4\u597d\u7684\uff0c\u8ba9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u91cd\u590d\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7684\u5b9e\u8df5\u4e5f\u8fdb\u884c\u590d\u5236\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u610f\u5f97\u8f91\u4e13\u5bb6\u89c6\u70b9\u76f8\u5173\u9605\u8bfb\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.editage.cn\/insights\/guidelines-for-analytical-method-validation-how-to-avoid-irreproducible-results-and-retractions\" target=\"_blank\">\u5206\u6790\u65b9\u6cd5\u9a8c\u8bc1\u6307\u5357\uff1a\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d\u65e0\u6cd5\u91cd\u590d\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u7ed3\u679c\u548c\u64a4\u7a3f<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.editage.cn\/insights\/why-are-replication-studies-so-rarely-published\" target=\"_blank\">\u4e3a\u4f55\u590d\u5236\u7814\u7a76\u5f88\u5c11\u88ab\u53d1\u8868\uff1f<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u7a76\u7adf\u6536\u76ca\u7684\u6b67\u4e49\u4f1a\u5982\u4f55\u5f71\u54cd\u5408\u4f5c\u548c\u5206\u914d\uff1f\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4efb\u4f55\u4e0e\u5148\u524d\u5de5\u4f5c\u6709\u5173\u7684\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u5355\u6709\u7edf\u8ba1\u663e\u8457\u6027\u5c31\u8db3\u4ee5\u8bc1\u660e\u5b83\u7684\u6709\u6548\u6027\u5417\uff1f Lu [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":72,"featured_media":60567,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[641,42],"tags":[201],"new_categories":[],"new_tags":[],"series":[],"class_list":["post-39802","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-fu-zhi-yan-jiu-157","category-hang-ye-qu-shi-75","tag-fu-zhi-yan-jiu-157"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>\u63a7\u5236\u3001\u5904\u7406\u3001\u91cd\u590d\uff1a\u5728\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u4e2d\u590d\u5236\u5b9e\u9a8c | \u610f\u5f97\u8f91\u4e13\u5bb6\u89c6\u70b9 Editage Insights<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" 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