{"id":38997,"date":"2018-12-06T10:02:34","date_gmt":"2018-12-06T04:32:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/new.editage.cn\/insights\/%e5%81%9a%e7%a0%94%e7%a9%b6%e6%97%b6%e5%ba%94%e9%81%bf%e5%85%8d%e7%9a%84-3-%e5%a4%a7%e9%94%99%e8%af%af"},"modified":"2026-01-07T16:24:19","modified_gmt":"2026-01-07T10:54:19","slug":"zuo-yan-jiu-shi-ying-bi-mian-de-3-da-cuo-wu-1906","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.editage.cn\/insights\/zuo-yan-jiu-shi-ying-bi-mian-de-3-da-cuo-wu-1906\/","title":{"rendered":"\u505a\u7814\u7a76\u65f6\u5e94\u907f\u514d\u7684 3 \u5927\u9519\u8bef"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify; margin: 0in 0in 10pt;\"><span style=\"font-size: 11pt;\"><span style=\"line-height: 115%;\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri,sans-serif;\"><span lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun;\" xml:lang=\"ZH-CN\">\u65e0\u610f\u4e2d\u62dc\u8bfb\u4e86<\/span> Charlie Munger <span lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun;\" xml:lang=\"ZH-CN\">\u540d\u4e3a<\/span><a style=\"color: blue; text-decoration: underline;\" href=\"https:\/\/buffettmungerwisdom.files.wordpress.com\/2013\/01\/mungerspeech_june_95.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><span lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun;\" xml:lang=\"ZH-CN\">\u201c\u4eba\u7c7b\u8bef\u5224\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u201d<\/span><\/a> (The Psychology of Human Misjudgment) <span lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun;\" xml:lang=\"ZH-CN\">\u7684\u8457\u540d\u6f14\u8bb2\uff0c\u7ed9\u6211\u5f88\u5927\u51b2\u51fb\u3002\u6f14\u8bb2\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ed6\u5217\u51fa\u4e86\u201c\u4eba\u7c7b\u8bef\u5224\u7684<\/span> 24 <span lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun;\" xml:lang=\"ZH-CN\">\u4e2a\u6807\u51c6\u539f\u56e0\u201d\u3002\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u65e5\u5e38\u5904\u7406\u7a3f\u4ef6\u7684\u4e13\u4e1a\u4eba\u58eb\uff0c\u6211\u672c\u80fd\u5730\u5f00\u59cb\u601d\u8003<\/span> Munger <span lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun;\" xml:lang=\"ZH-CN\">\u6f14\u8bb2\u4e2d\u6d89\u53ca\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u662f\u5426\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u5728\u79d1\u7814\u4e0a\u3002\u4e8e\u662f\u5c31\u6709\u4e86\u73b0\u5728\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u6211\u5c06\u7b80\u8ff0\u641e\u79d1\u7814\u65f6\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u5e94\u8be5\u907f\u514d\u7684\u4e09\u4e2a\u9519\u8bef\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; margin: 0in 0in 10pt;\"><span style=\"font-size: 11pt;\"><span style=\"line-height: 115%;\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri,sans-serif;\"><span lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun;\" xml:lang=\"ZH-CN\">\u9996\u5148<\/span><span lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun;\" xml:lang=\"ZH-CN\">\u7b80\u5355<\/span><span lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun;\" xml:lang=\"ZH-CN\">\u4ecb\u7ecd\u4e00\u4e0b<\/span> <a style=\"color: blue; text-decoration: underline;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/profile\/charles-munger\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Charlie Munger<\/a><span lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun;\" xml:lang=\"ZH-CN\">\u3002\u4ed6\u662f\u4e00\u4f4d\u7f8e\u56fd\u5546\u4eba\u3001\u6148\u5584\u5bb6\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u5728\u6295\u8d44\u516c\u53f8<\/span> Berkshire Hathaway <span lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun;\" xml:lang=\"ZH-CN\">\u62c5\u4efb\u526f\u8463\u4e00\u804c\u3002\u56e0\u5176\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u201c\u4eba\u7c7b\u8bef\u5224\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u201d\u6f14\u8bb2\u4e3a\u4eba\u719f\u77e5\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; margin: 0in 0in 10pt;\"><span style=\"font-size: 11pt;\"><span style=\"line-height: 115%;\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri,sans-serif;\"><span lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun;\" xml:lang=\"ZH-CN\">\u6211\u770b\u7684\u8fd9\u6bb5\u6f14\u8bb2\u4e2d\uff0c<\/span>Munger <span lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun;\" xml:lang=\"ZH-CN\">\u5217\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u5bb9\u6613\u4ea7\u751f\u9519\u8bef\u7ed3\u8bba\u7684\u903b\u8f91\u601d\u7ef4\u6f0f\u6d1e\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u4ed6\u6240\u8bf4\u7684\u8bef\u5224\u3002\u4ed6\u7528\u8bef\u5224\u7406\u8bba\u6765\u89e3\u91ca\u6211\u4eec\u751f\u6d3b\u4e2d\u7684\u8bf8\u591a\u73b0\u8c61\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u98de\u673a\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u5760\u673a\u3001\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u8ba9\u4eba\u4eec\u7559\u5728\u4e00\u6bb5\u7cdf\u7cd5\u7684\u5a5a\u59fb\u4e2d\u7b49\u3002\u4ed6\u751a\u81f3\u8fd8\u62ff\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6<\/span> B.F. Skinner <span lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun;\" xml:lang=\"ZH-CN\">\u4e3e\u4f8b\uff0c\u79f0\u5176\u4e3a\u201c\u624b\u63e1\u9524\u5b50\u7684\u4eba\u201d\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1<\/span> B.F. Skinner <span lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun;\" xml:lang=\"ZH-CN\">\u5728\u5b66\u672f\u4e0a\u5c55\u9732\u51fa\u8fc7\u4eba\u667a\u6167\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u5904\u4e8b\u4e0a\u5374\u4e0d\u61c2\u53d8\u901a\uff0c\u53ea\u4f1a\u7528\u540c\u4e00\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u5904\u7406\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; margin: 0in 0in 10pt;\"><span style=\"font-size: 11pt;\"><span style=\"line-height: 115%;\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri,sans-serif;\"><span lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun;\" xml:lang=\"ZH-CN\">\u5728\u770b\u8fd9\u6bb5\u6f14\u8bb2\u7a3f\u65f6\uff0c\u4e0d\u7981\u4f1a\u628a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8bef\u5224\u548c\u4e2a\u4eba\u751f\u6d3b\u3001\u8eab\u8fb9\u7684\u4eba\u8054\u7cfb\u8d77\u6765\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\u4f60\u6691\u5047\u56de\u5bb6\u65f6\uff0c\u5bb6\u91cc\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4eba\u90fd\u89c9\u5f97\u4f60\u80d6\u4e86\u6216\u8005\u7626\u4e86\uff0c\u4f60\u81ea\u5df1\u5374\u6ca1\u611f\u89c9\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u5178\u578b\u7684\u5bf9\u6bd4\u6548\u5e94\u3002\u5982\u679c\u771f\u50cf<\/span> Munger <span lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun;\" xml:lang=\"ZH-CN\">\u6240\u8bf4\uff0c<\/span>B.F. Skinner <span lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun;\" xml:lang=\"ZH-CN\">\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u4e5f\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u8bef\u5224\uff0c\u90a3\u5982\u4eca\u5404\u9886\u57df\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u4e5f\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u540c\u6837\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u9020\u6210\u5404\u79cd\u5931\u8bef\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; margin: 0in 0in 10pt;\"><span style=\"font-size: 11pt;\"><span style=\"line-height: 115%;\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri,sans-serif;\"><span lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun;\" xml:lang=\"ZH-CN\">\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u8fc7\u53bb\u5341\u5e74\u4e2d\u8bb8\u591a\u5df2\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u90fd\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86<\/span><a style=\"color: blue; text-decoration: underline;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.editage.cn\/insights\/1680.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun;\" xml:lang=\"ZH-CN\">\u4e0d\u53ef\u91cd\u590d\u7684\u95ee\u9898<\/span><\/a><span lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun;\" xml:lang=\"ZH-CN\">\u3002\u6487\u5f00\u523b\u610f\u7684\u9053\u5fb7\u8fdd\u89c4\u4e0d\u8c08\uff0c\u95ee\u9898\u5230\u5e95\u51fa\u5728\u54ea\uff1f\u6211\u5e26\u7740\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u518d\u6b21\u56de\u987e<\/span> Munger <span lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun;\" xml:lang=\"ZH-CN\">\u7684\u6f14\u8bb2\uff0c\u5e0c\u671b\u628a\u8bef\u5224\u548c\u79d1\u7814\u8054\u7cfb\u8d77\u6765\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; margin: 0in 0in 10pt;\"><span style=\"font-size: 11pt;\"><span style=\"line-height: 115%;\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri,sans-serif;\"><span lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun;\" xml:lang=\"ZH-CN\">\u7ecf\u8fc7\u89c2\u5bdf\u548c\u601d\u8003\uff0c\u6211\u8fd8\u771f\u7684\u627e\u5230\u4e00\u4e9b\u76f8\u4f3c\u4e4b\u5904\uff0c\u80fd\u628a\u8bef\u5224\u7406\u8bba\u8fd0\u7528\u5230\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u8eab\u4e0a\u3002\u8877\u5fc3\u5e0c\u671b\u4ee5\u4e0b\u8bba\u70b9\u80fd\u8ba9\u4f60\u5728\u8fdb\u884c\u7814\u7a76\u65f6\u66f4\u52a0\u8c28\u614e\uff0c\u907f\u514d\u4e00\u4e9b\u4e0d\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u9519\u8bef\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u5bf9\u4f60\u7684\u4e2a\u4eba\u751f\u6d3b\u548c\u804c\u4e1a\u751f\u6daf\u90fd\u80fd\u6709\u70b9\u5e2e\u52a9\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; margin: 0in 0in 10pt;\"><span style=\"font-size: 11pt;\"><span style=\"line-height: 115%;\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri,sans-serif;\"><span lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun;\" xml:lang=\"ZH-CN\">\u73b0\u5728\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u6765\u770b\u770b\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u53ef\u80fd\u9677\u5165\u54ea\u4e09\u79cd\u9519\u8bef\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; margin: 0in 0in 10pt;\"><span style=\"font-size: 11pt;\"><span style=\"line-height: 115%;\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri,sans-serif;\"><b>1. <\/b><b><span lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun;\" xml:lang=\"ZH-CN\">\u575a\u6301\u548c\u4e0d\u6539\u53d8\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u5c31\u662f\u597d\u7684\uff01<\/span><\/b><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; margin: 0in 0in 10pt;\"><span style=\"font-size: 11pt;\"><span style=\"line-height: 115%;\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri,sans-serif;\"><span lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun;\" xml:lang=\"ZH-CN\">\u770b\u5b8c\u4e00\u90e8\u7535\u5f71\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u4f60\u6709\u6ca1\u6709\u8fc7<\/span><span lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun;\" xml:lang=\"ZH-CN\">\u7c7b\u4f3c<\/span><span lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun;\" xml:lang=\"ZH-CN\">\u201c\u4e3a\u5565\u8981\u5728\u8fd9\u4e0a\u9762\u6d6a\u8d39\u4e24\u5c0f\u65f6\u201d\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\uff1f\u5982\u679c\u6709\uff0c\u4f60\u53ef\u80fd\u4e5f\u662f\u88ab\u201c\u627f\u8bfa\u548c\u4e00\u81f4\u6027\u539f\u5219\u201d\u7ed1\u67b6\u7684\u4eba\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u539f\u5219\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u7279\u70b9\u5c31\u662f\u575a\u5b88\u627f\u8bfa\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u610f\u5473\u7740\u5f53\u4f60\u5df2\u77e5\u7ed3\u679c\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5c3d\u5982\u4eba\u610f\uff0c\u4e5f\u4f1a\u52c9\u5f3a\u7ee7\u7eed\u4e0b\u53bb\u3002\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4f1a\u8fd9\u6837\uff1f\u4e00\u4e2a\u89e3\u91ca\u662f\u4eba\u4eec\u65e0\u6cd5\u820d\u5f03\u6c89\u6ca1\u6210\u672c\uff08\u5728\u4e0a\u8ff0\u4f8b\u5b50\u4e2d\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u5df2\u7ecf\u82b1\u4e70\u7684\u7535\u5f71\u7968\uff09\u5b81\u613f\u76f8\u4fe1\u7ee7\u7eed\u6bd4\u505c\u6b62\u7684\u635f\u5931\u6765\u5f97\u5c0f\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u4e0d\u5e0c\u671b\u81ea\u5df1\u770b\u4e0a\u53bb\u53d8\u5316\u65e0\u5e38\u3001\u65f6\u4e0d\u65f6\u5c31\u6539\u4e3b\u610f\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u53ea\u80fd\u9009\u62e9\u4e0d\u53d8\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; margin: 0in 0in 10pt;\"><span style=\"font-size: 11pt;\"><span style=\"line-height: 115%;\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri,sans-serif;\"><span lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun;\" xml:lang=\"ZH-CN\">\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u88ab\u8fd9\u79cd\u601d\u7ef4\u6a21\u5f0f\u8bef\u5bfc\uff1f\u5f53\u4ed6\u4eec\u6e05\u695a\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e0d\u4f1a\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u5f53\u673a\u7acb\u65ad\u53eb\u505c\u7814\u7a76\u6216\u6539\u53d8\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u5411\uff1f\u5b9e\u4e8b\u6c42\u662f\u5730\u8bf4\uff0c\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u53ef\u80fd\u90fd\u4f1a\u5c06\u9519\u5c31\u9519\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; margin: 0in 0in 10pt;\"><span style=\"font-size: 11pt;\"><span style=\"line-height: 115%;\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri,sans-serif;\"><span lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun;\" xml:lang=\"ZH-CN\">\u5047\u5982\u4f60\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5df2\u8fdb\u5165\u540e\u671f\uff0c\u5076\u7136\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u4f60\u5728\u6570\u636e\u5e93\u4e2d\u53d1\u73b0\u4e86\u4e00\u7bc7\u5f7b\u5e95\u98a0\u8986\u4f60\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5047\u8bbe\u7684\u8bba\u6587\u3002\u8ba4\u771f\u7814\u8bfb\u540e\uff0c\u4f60\u627f\u8ba4\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u786e\u5b58\u5728\u6f0f\u6d1e\uff0c\u8fd9\u65f6\u4f60\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u628a\u8fd9\u4e2a\u9879\u76ee\u7ee7\u7eed\u8fdb\u884c\u4e0b\u53bb\uff0c\u770b\u5b83\u4f1a\u4e0d\u4f1a\u88ab\u671f\u520a\u63a5\u53d7\uff1f\u575a\u6301\u4e0d\u6539\u53d8\u7684\u529b\u91cf\u6709\u65f6\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f3a\u5230\u963b\u6b62\u4f60\u53bb\u63a2\u7d22\u5176\u4ed6\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002\u4f5c\u4e3a\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u7684\u4f60\u5e94\u8be5\u8b66\u60d5\u8fd9\u79cd\u5fc3\u7406\uff01<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; margin: 0in 0in 10pt;\"><span style=\"font-size: 11pt;\"><span style=\"line-height: 115%;\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri,sans-serif;\"><b>2. <\/b><b><span lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun;\" xml:lang=\"ZH-CN\">\u5f53\u4f5c\u8005\u5bf9\u7814\u7a76\u7ed3\u679c\u9009\u62e9\u6027\u5931\u660e\uff0c\u8bfb\u8005\u5c31\u72b9\u5982\u76f2\u4eba\u6478\u8c61\uff01<\/span><\/b><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; margin: 0in 0in 10pt;\"><span style=\"font-size: 11pt;\"><span style=\"line-height: 115%;\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri,sans-serif;\"><span lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun;\" xml:lang=\"ZH-CN\">\u5148\u6765\u4e3e\u4e2a\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c<\/span>Jack <span lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun;\" xml:lang=\"ZH-CN\">\u5b8c\u6210\u7814\u7a76\u540e\u53d1\u73b0\u53ea\u6709<\/span> 50% <span lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun;\" xml:lang=\"ZH-CN\">\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u652f\u6301\u4ed6\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u3002\u5931\u671b\u4e4b\u4f59\uff0c\u4ed6\u60f3\u4e86\u4e2a\u529e\u6cd5\uff0c\u4e0e\u5176\u5c55\u793a\u5168\u90e8\u7ed3\u679c\u767d\u5fd9\u4e00\u573a\uff0c\u4e0d\u5982\u9690\u53bb\u8d1f\u9762\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u53ea\u53d1\u8868\u90a3\u4e9b\u6709\u5229\u4e8e\u81ea\u5df1\u5047\u8bbe\u7684\u6570\u636e\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u628a\u8fd9\u79cd\u9009\u62e9\u6027\u5730\u5c55\u793a\u597d\u7684\u4e00\u9762\u5ffd\u7565\u574f\u7684\u4e00\u9762\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u6311\u6a31\u6843<\/span> (cherry picking)<span lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun;\" xml:lang=\"ZH-CN\">\u201d\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; margin: 0in 0in 10pt;\"><span style=\"font-size: 11pt;\"><span style=\"line-height: 115%;\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri,sans-serif;\"><span lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun;\" xml:lang=\"ZH-CN\">\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u5e94\u8be5\u5bf9\u63d0\u4f9b\u6570\u636e\u7684\u900f\u660e\u6027\u548c\u8bda\u5b9e\u5ea6\u6709\u4e2a\u6709\u6700\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u8ba4\u8bc6\u3002\u5f53\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u5728\u5448\u73b0\u6216\u5206\u6790\u6570\u636e\u65f6\u548c<\/span> cherry picking <span lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun;\" xml:lang=\"ZH-CN\">\u626f\u4e0a\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u5c31\u610f\u5473\u7740\u64cd\u7eb5\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u76f4\u63a5\u5bf9\u79d1\u5b66\u9020\u6210\u4e86\u635f\u5bb3\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; margin: 0in 0in 10pt;\"><span style=\"font-size: 11pt;\"><span style=\"line-height: 115%;\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri,sans-serif;\"><span lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun;\" xml:lang=\"ZH-CN\">\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u771f\u76f8\u662f<\/span><a style=\"color: blue; text-decoration: underline;\" href=\"https:\/\/medcom.uiowa.edu\/holden\/beautiful-hypothesis-ugly-fact\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><span lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun;\" xml:lang=\"ZH-CN\">\u201c\u7528\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e11\u964b\u7684\u4e8b\u5b9e\u6740\u6b7b\u4e00\u4e2a\u6f02\u4eae\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u201d<\/span><\/a><span lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun;\" xml:lang=\"ZH-CN\">\u3002\u5f53\u610f\u6599\u4e4b\u5916\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u51fa\u73b0\u65f6\uff0c\u6700\u597d\u7684\u529e\u6cd5\u662f\u627e\u51fa\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u6e90\u5934\u5e76\u8bd5\u56fe\u89e3\u51b3\u5b83\u3002\u5c31\u7b97\u884c\u4e0d\u901a\uff0c\u4e5f\u5e94\u8be5\u8001\u8001\u5b9e\u5b9e\u5448\u73b0\u5b8c\u6574\u7684\u539f\u59cb\u7ed3\u679c\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; margin: 0in 0in 10pt;\"><span style=\"font-size: 11pt;\"><span style=\"line-height: 115%;\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri,sans-serif;\"><b>3. <\/b><b><span lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun;\" xml:lang=\"ZH-CN\">\u5982\u4f55\u6b63\u786e\u951a\u5b9a\uff0c\u5b66\u672f\u7684\u5c0f\u8239\u624d\u4e0d\u4f1a\u8bf4\u7ffb\u5c31\u7ffb\uff1f<\/span><\/b><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; margin: 0in 0in 10pt;\"><span style=\"font-size: 11pt;\"><span style=\"line-height: 115%;\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri,sans-serif;\"><span lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun;\" xml:lang=\"ZH-CN\">\u65e9\u4e0a<\/span> 8 <span lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun;\" xml:lang=\"ZH-CN\">\u70b9\u5230\u4e0b\u5348<\/span> 5 <span lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun;\" xml:lang=\"ZH-CN\">\u70b9\u4e4b\u95f4\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u4e2a\u5c0f\u65f6\uff0c\u5e94\u8be5\u600e\u4e48\u7b97\uff1f\u4ee5\u4e2d\u5348<\/span> 12 <span lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun;\" xml:lang=\"ZH-CN\">\u70b9\u4e3a\u5206\u754c\u7ebf\u5411\u524d\u540e\u5206\u522b\u8ba1\u7b97\u662f\u4e2a\u4e0d\u9519\u7684\u529e\u6cd5\uff0c\u628a\u4e2d\u5348<\/span> 12 <span lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun;\" xml:lang=\"ZH-CN\">\u70b9\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6211\u4eec\u719f\u6089\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u4f5c\u4e3a\u53c2\u7167\u5b9a\u70b9\u4e00\u4e0b\u5c31\u8ba9\u6a21\u7cca\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u523b\u5ea6\u6e05\u6670\u4e86\u8d77\u6765\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; margin: 0in 0in 10pt;\"><span style=\"font-size: 11pt;\"><span style=\"line-height: 115%;\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri,sans-serif;\"><span lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun;\" xml:lang=\"ZH-CN\">\u627e\u53c2\u7167\u4e5f\u4e0d\u89c1\u5f97\u603b\u662f\u597d\u4e8b\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u627e\u9519\u951a\u70b9\u53cd\u800c\u4f1a\u6270\u4e71\u4eba\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u3002\u5047\u8bbe\u4f60\u60f3\u7ed9\u5bb6\u91cc\u6dfb\u7f6e\u4e2a\u5927\u4ef6\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e86\u4ee5\u6700\u5212\u7b97\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u4e70\u5230\u5546\u54c1\u4f60\u5f00\u59cb\u5bf9\u6bd4\u5e02\u9762\u4e0a\u5404\u79cd\u6e20\u9053\u7684\u6807\u4ef7\u3002\u5f53\u4f60\u7528\u624b\u673a<\/span> APP <span lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun;\" xml:lang=\"ZH-CN\">\u6bd4\u4ef7\u65f6\uff0c\u5e94\u7528\u7a0b\u5e8f\u7ed9\u51fa\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u5c31\u6210\u4e86\u4f60\u7684\u53c2\u7167\u951a\u70b9\u3002\u4f46\u95ee\u9898\u662f\uff0c\u4f60\u5982\u4f55\u786e\u5b9a\u7f51\u8d2d\u4ef7\u683c\u5c31\u662f\u6807\u51c6\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u4ef7\uff1f\u8c28\u614e\u9009\u62e9\u53c2\u7167\u951a\u70b9\uff0c\u522b\u8ba9\u9519\u8bef\u4fe1\u606f\u8bef\u5bfc\u4f60\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; margin: 0in 0in 10pt;\"><span style=\"font-size: 11pt;\"><span style=\"line-height: 115%;\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri,sans-serif;\"><span lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun;\" xml:lang=\"ZH-CN\">\u8fd9\u4e2a\u9053\u7406\u4e5f\u80fd\u7528\u5728\u5b66\u672f\u4e0a\u3002\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u540d\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\uff0c\u5728\u6ca1\u6709\u786e\u8ba4\u53c2\u8003\u8d44\u6599\u7684\u6548\u5ea6\u4e4b\u524d\u5c31\u5bf9\u5176\u8fc7\u5206\u4f9d\u8d56\uff0c\u653e\u5fc3\u5730\u7528\u5728\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u91cc\uff0c\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u5bf9\u4f60\u7684\u9879\u76ee\u4ea7\u751f\u8d1f\u9762\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; margin: 0in 0in 10pt;\"><span style=\"font-size: 11pt;\"><span style=\"line-height: 115%;\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri,sans-serif;\"><b><span lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun;\" xml:lang=\"ZH-CN\">\u603b\u7ed3<\/span><\/b><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; margin: 0in 0in 10pt;\"><span style=\"font-size: 11pt;\"><span style=\"line-height: 115%;\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri,sans-serif;\"><span lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun;\" xml:lang=\"ZH-CN\">\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u53ef\u80fd\u90fd\u4f1a\u8bef\u5165\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u5411\u3002\u5728\u8fdb\u884c\u7814\u7a76\u6216\u5448\u73b0\u7ed3\u679c\u65f6\u4fdd\u6301\u8b66\u60d5\uff0c\u4e0d\u4e3a\u63a9\u9970\u4e00\u4e2a\u9519\u8bef\u72af\u4e0b\u66f4\u591a\u9519\u8bef\u624d\u662f\u53ef\u53d6\u7684\u3002\u786e\u4fdd\u53d1\u8868\u8bba\u6587\u7684\u51c6\u786e\u6027\u975e\u5e38\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u6bd5\u7adf\u79d1\u5b66\u662f\u5efa\u7acb\u5728\u73b0\u6709\u7814\u7a76\u4e4b\u4e0a\u7684\uff0c\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u7d2f\u79ef\u6548\u5e94\u5c06\u662f\u6bc1\u706d\u6027\u7684\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u8b66\u60d5\u5e76\u907f\u514d\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u4f60\u5224\u65ad\u7684\u9519\u8bef\u5427\uff01<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 0in 0in 10pt;\"><span style=\"font-size: 11pt;\"><span style=\"line-height: 115%;\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri,sans-serif;\"><span lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun;\" xml:lang=\"ZH-CN\">\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u6709\u8da3\u5417\uff1f\u91cc\u9762\u8bb2\u5230\u7684\u9519\u8bef\u4f60\u4e5f\u6709\u8fc7\u5417\uff1f\u6b22\u8fce\u7559\u8a00\u8c08\u8c08\u4f60\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 0in 0in 10pt;\"><span style=\"font-size: 11pt;\"><span style=\"line-height: 115%;\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri,sans-serif;\"><b><span lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun;\" xml:lang=\"ZH-CN\">\u610f\u5f97\u8f91\u4e13\u5bb6\u89c6\u70b9\u76f8\u5173\u63a8\u8350\u9605\u8bfb\uff1a<\/span><\/b><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"margin: 0in 0in 10pt;\"><span style=\"font-size: 11pt;\"><span style=\"line-height: 115%;\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri,sans-serif;\"><a style=\"color: blue; text-decoration: underline;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.editage.cn\/insights\/1237.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun;\" xml:lang=\"ZH-CN\">\u671f\u520a\u62d2\u7a3f\u7684<\/span> 8 <span lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun;\" xml:lang=\"ZH-CN\">\u5927\u539f\u56e0<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"margin: 0in 0in 10pt;\"><span style=\"font-size: 11pt;\"><span style=\"line-height: 115%;\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri,sans-serif;\"><a style=\"color: blue; text-decoration: underline;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.editage.cn\/insights\/1376.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun;\" xml:lang=\"ZH-CN\">\u79d1\u7814\u5199\u4f5c\u5e94\u907f\u514d\u7684<\/span> 6 <span lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun;\" xml:lang=\"ZH-CN\">\u5927\u9519\u8bef\uff08<\/span>1<span lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun;\" xml:lang=\"ZH-CN\">\uff09<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"margin: 0in 0in 10pt;\"><span style=\"font-size: 11pt;\"><span style=\"line-height: 115%;\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri,sans-serif;\"><a style=\"color: blue; text-decoration: underline;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.editage.cn\/insights\/1388.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun;\" xml:lang=\"ZH-CN\">\u79d1\u7814\u5199\u4f5c\u5e94\u907f\u514d\u7684<\/span> 6 <span lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun;\" xml:lang=\"ZH-CN\">\u5927\u9519\u8bef\uff08<\/span>2<span lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun;\" xml:lang=\"ZH-CN\">\uff09<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"margin: 0in 0in 10pt;\"><span style=\"font-size: 11pt;\"><span style=\"line-height: 115%;\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri,sans-serif;\"><span lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun;\" xml:lang=\"ZH-CN\">\u3010\u58f0\u660e\uff1a\u672c\u6587\u5185\u5bb9\u4e3a\u4f5c\u8005\u4e2a\u4eba\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u4e0d\u4ee3\u8868\u610f\u5f97\u8f91\u4e13\u5bb6\u89c6\u70b9\u7acb\u573a\u3002\u3011<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u65e0\u610f\u4e2d\u62dc\u8bfb\u4e86 Charlie Munger \u540d\u4e3a\u201c\u4eba\u7c7b\u8bef\u5224\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u201d (The Psychology of Hu [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":106,"featured_media":60567,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[591,32,569,527,41],"tags":[178,33,63],"new_categories":[],"new_tags":[],"series":[],"class_list":["post-38997","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-fa-biao-pian-yi-140","category-wen-xian-cha-xun-40","category-wen-xian-zong-shu-91","category-yan-jiu-dao-de-125","category-ke-yan-dao-de-30","tag-fa-biao-pian-yi-140","tag-wen-xian-zong-shu-91","tag-yan-jiu-dao-de-125"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>\u505a\u7814\u7a76\u65f6\u5e94\u907f\u514d\u7684 3 \u5927\u9519\u8bef | \u610f\u5f97\u8f91\u4e13\u5bb6\u89c6\u70b9 Editage Insights<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" 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